Shortage of rock, or lack of visibility? Land data creates advantages in Permian and Haynseville

Across the Permian and Haynesville basins, a familiar narrative has taken hold: prime acreage is running out. Permian land prices have surged, driven by over $100 billion in consolidation and the rapid depletion of Tier‑1 inventory. Yet beneath the headlines lies a subtler story: companies with the right land-and‑data capabilities are finding new value in places others deem “scarce.”

 

Haynesville is a case in point. Despite a steep 11% decline in production in 2024—dropping to 14.6 Bcf/d amid low gas prices—it still contains more than 20 years of Tier‑1/2 drilling runway according to Novi Labs data. With only ~4,000 of the 14,000 potential locations drilled, advanced completions and longer laterals have unlocked formerly overlooked zones. Operators are now targeting bypassed Bossier pay and better mapping reservoir variability to extend the productive core.

 

The Permian faces a contrasting predicament: while Tier‑1 depletion is real, it has triggered a technological and strategic pivot rather than a dead end. Investments in long laterals—25% of Midland wells and even longer tests up to 4 miles—have drawn production efficiency higher. Data-driven completion designs, such as Deloitte’s formation‑engineering calibration, could deliver over 20% improvements in EUR per dollar spent.

 

This is where visibility becomes competitive advantage. Firms leveraging downhole performance models, AI‑augmented subsurface analytics, and smart leasing strategies are not just chasing legacy core—they’re building new core. Think horseshoe laterals, deeper benches in the Wolfcamp, and algorithm‑optimized frack designs—enabled by satellite land databases and GIS data that shine light where others saw depletion.

 

This is where accurate land and title data become the real competitive edge. For every widely known lease, there are fractions, overlooked heirs, under-marketed minerals, and fragmented tracts that only appear viable when layered with subsurface performance data. Firms pairing dynamic leasehold maps with production decline curves and completions histories are finding “new Tier‑1” buried inside what was once called Tier‑2.

 

In Haynesville, the same holds true. Leasehold overlap, historical pooling, and older vertical well records often mask how to efficiently block up longer laterals today. Companies that can stitch together these puzzles—aligning title records with 3D seismic, microseismic, and well log data—are turning what competitors see as Tier‑3 rock into economic new core.

 

The emerging reality is clear: resource scarcity exists on paper, but opportunity exists for those who know how to read the land and the rock beneath it. Whether in Midland or in north Louisiana, the next decade’s shale winners will be the ones who combine sharp land discipline with subsurface analytics, turning perceived scarcity into hidden runway that extends far beyond what a lease map alone can tell you.

 

Conversely, the land scramble masks a deeper opportunity. While Permian giants merge and consolidate to access scarce Tier‑1 tracts, those with data advantage can expand Tier‑2 into Tier‑1 performance. In Haynesville, the same playbook applies—but at far lower land cost and competitive intensity. Tier‑2 Haynesville acreage, overlooked until recently, is becoming as productive as Tier‑1.

 

The emerging equilibrium is clear: rock scarcity is subjective, not absolute. Whether in Midland or Louisiana, the future belongs to those who can see and engineer productivity by converting data-derived insight into productive value, not just drillable acreage. In 2025’s mature shale era, “core” will be defined less by where the land lies, and more by who understands what lies beneath it.